Tuesday Evening Hurricane Matthew Update

Hurricane Matthew:
5 pm EDT/4 pm CDT Statistics:
Location: 19.8 North Latitude, 74.3 West Longitude or about 30 miles to the south-southwest of the eastern tip of Cuba.
Maximum Winds: 140 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 934 Millibars or 27.58 Inches.
Forward Movement: North at a forward speed of 9 mph.

There have been some pretty significant and potentially very troubling westward shifts in the afternoon model guidance. Most notably is the European model, which is one of our more reliable and most accurate models, which now forecasts Matthew to make landfall near Melbourne and Cocoa Beach, Florida on Friday morning as a Category 3 hurricane. This would lead to hurricane and even major hurricane conditions to eastern Florida and southeastern Georgia from Boca Raton northward all the way to Savannah.

The GFS model, on the other hand, forecasts a track that takes Matthew just barely offshore of the east coast of Florida on Thursday night and Friday and then forecasts a track very near the coasts of southeastern Georgia, southeast South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina on Friday night and Saturday. This type of track would keep the core of the hurricane off of the coast, but would still bring hurricane conditions to much of eastern Florida, southeast Georgia, southeast South Carolina and southeast North Carolina.

The reason why I am so troubled by the latest European model forecast is because it has performed the best so far with the forecast track of Matthew. In addition, the GFS model has been underforecasting the strength of the western Atlantic ridge of high pressure. So, a stronger ridge of high pressure could potentially mean a further west track into eastern Florida like the European model suggests. In addition to this, the UKMET model also forecasts a landfall very near the same place as the European model.

Because of these continued westward shifts in the model guidance, I Strongly Urge Everyone Across The Florida Peninsula, Especially Across Eastern Florida From The Florida-Georgia Border To Fort Lauderdale To Prepare NOW For Hurricane Conditions Which Can Be Expected From Thursday Night Through Friday.

Forecast Impacts Across Haiti, the Dominican Republic & Eastern Cuba Tonight:
Winds: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue impacting Haiti and eastern Cuba tonight.

Rainfall: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic: 15 to 25 inches with isolated 40 inch rainfall amounts.
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti: 8 to 12 inches with isolated 20 inch rainfall amounts.
Eastern Jamaica: 4 to 6 inches.
Northeastern Haiti and the Dominican Republic: 1 to 3 inches.
Western Jamaica: 1 to 2 inches

Catastrophic flooding and mudslides are likely to continue across parts of Haiti, eastern Cuba and the Dominican Republic tonight.

Storm Surge: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels:

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz: 7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti: 7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey: 4 to 6 feet
Jamaica: 2 to 4 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti: 3 to 5 feet
Southern Coast of the Dominican Republic…1 to 3 feet

Forecast Impacts For The Bahamas From Tonight Through Wednesday & Thursday:
Winds: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue to spread across the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and then the northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the southeastern Bahamas tonight with hurricane conditions overspreading the central Bahamas on Wednesday and then the northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday night.

It needs to be emphasized that all of the Bahamas are expected to be hit extremely hard by Matthew. The eyewall and eye of Matthew is still forecast to track right over Nassau. Winds of 125 to 135 mph with higher gusts are expected to impact the Bahama Islands of Grand Bahama, Great Abaco, Eleuthera, New Providence (including Nassau), Long and Great Guana Cay.

Rainfall: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 15 inches first across the southeastern Bahamas from tonight to Thursday then the central Bahamas from Wednesday to Friday and finally the northwestern Bahamas from Wednesday night to Friday night.

Storm Surge: A 10 to 15 foot storm surge with large and destructive waves on top of the surge are expected across all of the Bahamas during Wednesday and Thursday.

Everyone Across All Of The Bahamas Should Be Ready For A Major Hurricane Hit From Tonight Through Wednesday & Thursday.

Forecast Impacts For The Florida Peninsula From Thursday Through Friday:
Winds: Tropical storm conditions are forecast to spread across much of the Florida Peninsula during the day on Thursday with hurricane conditions expected to spread across eastern Florida from Fort Lauderdale northward all the way to the Florida-Georgia border late Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening and continue through Thursday night and much of Friday.

Please Be Aware that a small deviation of the track even more to the west could bring the eyewall of a major hurricane right across much of central and eastern Florida during Thursday night and Friday. On the other hand, a small deviation in the track to the east would cause all of the hurricane conditions to remain offshore of the Florida coast.

With That Said, I Strongly Urge Everyone In Central & Eastern Florida To Prepare For The Worst, Which Is A Major Hurricane Impacting You On Thursday Night & Friday. We hope to have a much better idea by tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow night about the exact impacts Matthew will have across Florida.

Rainfall: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches across central and eastern Florida and the upper Florida Keys from Thursday through Friday and total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches across the middle and lower Florida Keys from Thursday through Friday.

Storm Surge: A 3 to 6 foot storm surge is forecast from Thursday night through Friday along the entire Florida east coast.

Bottom Line Is That Now Is The Time To Get Ready For A Hurricane Hit & Possibly Even A Major Hurricane Hit Across The Florida Peninsula!!

Hurricane Conditions Are Likely Across Southeastern Georgia, Southeast South Carolina & Eastern North Carolina From Friday Night Through Saturday. If You Live In This Area, I Strongly Urge You To Start Getting Ready. Have Your Hurricane Plan & Hurricane Kit Up To Date & Find Out If You Live In An Evacuation Zone.

The next full comprehensive discussion on Hurricane Matthew will be issued by 9 am EDT/8 am CDT Wednesday Morning. If you need any specific updates or have any questions about Matthew before then, do not hesitate to contact me at crownweather@gmail.com as I am constantly and closely watching this hurricane.