Elsa Strengthens Into A Hurricane As It Moves Across The Windward Islands

Hurricane Elsa:
8:30 am EDT/7:30 am CDT Statistics:
Location: 13.1 North Latitude, 60.1 West Longitude or about 75 miles to the east of St. Vincent.
Maximum Winds: 75 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 995 Millibars or 29.39 Inches.
Forward Movement: West-Northwest at a forward speed of 28 mph.

Elsa is certainly strengthening today and it is now a hurricane based on satellite imagery, radar imagery from Barbados and weather observations from Barbados.

Radar imagery from Barbados indicates that an eye seems to be forming with a partially closed eyewall observed. In addition, the airport in Barbados has recorded wind gusts of hurricane force (86 mph wind gust). Based on all of this, Elsa is now a hurricane with 75 to 80 mph winds or so. This means that the Windward Islands, and in particular the island of St. Lucia and St. Vincent, will see hurricane conditions the rest of this morning into this afternoon.

Satellite imagery today indicates that Elsa continues to become better organized and it seems the storm now has outflow in all quadrants. Deep thunderstorm activity is firing near its center today as well. Based on all of this, Elsa will be entering the southeastern Caribbean as a hurricane this afternoon.

Forecast Track: Elsa is currently moving on a general west-northwestward track and this movement should continue through Saturday and at least into Sunday. The weather pattern this weekend consists of an upper level high pressure system to the north of the hurricane. This ridge of high pressure will guide Elsa to the west-northwest for much of the weekend.

The track of Elsa this weekend into next week will hinge heavily on how strong it is in the Caribbean. Whereas Elsa is now a hurricane, its path will be dictated by the mid and upper level winds rather than lower level steering winds if it was a weak storm. An analysis of the steering winds around and ahead of Elsa reveals that the track of the storm should take it as far west as around 80 West Longitude before it begins to feel the influence of a upper level trough of low pressure exiting the East Coast of the United States.

This means that Elsa could track very close to, if not right over the island of Jamaica and across the Cayman Islands on Saturday night and Sunday with hurricane conditions probable.

The differences between the GFS model and the European model guidance are extremely large for both track and intensity. The European model’s forecast of a very weak system that tracks up into Haiti, eastern Cuba and the Bahamas will be discounted since Elsa is MUCH stronger than what the European model is depicting.

This means that the GFS model suite’s track forecast may be more accurate in the end leading to a gradual turn to the northwest when it reaches the area of Jamaica and western Cuba from Sunday into Monday.

My Thinking Is That Elsa will probably head in a west-northwest direction across the Caribbean this weekend into early next week. This means that hurricane impacts on Jamaica and the Cayman Islands are probable from Sunday into Sunday night.

Beyond this, I think that Elsa could move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday night into Tuesday morning with hurricane impacts on the lower Florida Keys possible.

Where it goes after this still remains to be seen.

My “gut feeling” is that we see this head towards the area of the Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend area of Florida by about Tuesday night into Wednesday. With that said, all options are certainly on the table with impacts from Louisiana to the Florida Peninsula certainly in play.

One thing to note is that with Elsa paralleling the west coast of Florida from Tuesday into Wednesday, it means that at least tropical storm conditions could occur across much of the Florida Peninsula even if it stays just offshore.

Forecast Strength: Elsa is in a favorable environment for additional strengthening in the eastern and central Caribbean with warm ocean water temperatures, plenty of moisture to work with and relatively low wind shear values present. This means that additional steady strengthening looks likely for at least the next couple of days and I think that Elsa may be close to a 100 mph hurricane by the time it reaches the area near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.

One thing that is still concerning is that the latest SHIPS intensity guidance Rapid Intensification Probability Matrix is forecasting a 37 percent chance for Elsa to strengthen up to a 105 mph hurricane by this time Saturday. Should this occur, it would mean a stronger Elsa by the time it gets to the area around Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. This type of strengthening is something that is being watched very closely.

Forecast Impacts:

Windward Islands & Barbados – Hurricane conditions, including bands of heavy rainfall (rain amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected) and wind gusts of up to 85 mph will continue through midday across Barbados and much of the Windward Islands before diminishing this afternoon.

Jamaica & The Cayman Islands – Hurricane conditions are probable beginning on Saturday night and continuing through Sunday. This includes bands of heavy rainfall and wind gusts of up to 100 mph.

Florida Panhandle & Florida Peninsula – Impacts on the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Panhandle will hinge on what type of track Elsa takes in the Caribbean this weekend. For now, I would make preliminary preparations for tropical storm to hurricane conditions, especially where this is a holiday weekend and things are already busy and crowded. Get your basics purchased today, including ice and water. Also, fuel up those gas tanks, just in case.

I think, at the minimum, much of, if not all of the Florida Peninsula will see tropical storm conditions beginning on Monday night and continuing through Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are a possibility along the west coast of Florida from about Tampa and points north, as well as across the Big Bend area of northwest Florida and parts of the Florida Panhandle.

Everyone across the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Peninsula need to keep updated on the latest progress and forecasts of Elsa throughout this weekend.

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday.